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Cost at risk analysis

Issue
The senior management of one Europe's largest electricity users needed to respond to a major increase in costs caused by the expiry of advantageous long-term electricity supply contracts. Deregulation of the local electricity market had forced the company's traditional supplier to adopt a much more commercial focus in their pricing and supply contracts, so a review of alternative strategies for electricity procurement was urgently needed.

Solution
The company's finance and business operations team selected Lacima for its experience and reputation in the energy risk management marketplace. Lacima conducted a strategic review to identify the company's best strategy for buying electricity. This review identified the pros and cons of current methods and suggested a range of alternatives. An important additional element of Lacima's work was knowledge transfer and further boosting the expertise of key staff concerning risk management in the area of electricity trading.

Benefits
The strategic review highlighted an opportunity to benefit from more sophisticated strategies for electricity trading, which the company adopted. As part of this work, the company acquired much greater abilities to evaluate proposals from electricity generators, and as a result was able to obtain much better pricing and terms.

By increasing its energy risk management capabilities, the company has been able to reduce the variability of the company's profitability which its previous energy trading regime was not able to address adequately.


Outsourced risk advice

Issue

Directors of the energy markets division of a large financial services company were driving high growth in their business through a move into physical energy trading. By doing so, the division would be able to take on and manage the physical exposures arising from energy assets being acquired by their parent company’s investment banking arm.

The directors also wished to assist the investment banking team to value potential energy asset purchases, and to offer financial hedges to external customers such as airlines, refiners, and other large energy users. Importantly, as a by-product of being active in physical markets, the division’s energy trading team also gained access to information of significant help in boosting profits from financial trading.

While risk analytical resource was available to the energy trading team through the company’s internal operations, it was neither a dedicated resource, nor did it specialise in energy markets.

It was therefore decided to support the energy market division’s growth plans by outsourcing part of the division’s risk evaluation and deal analysis needs to a firm of well-regarded experts. Critical to the success of this move would be the consulting firm’s ability to add value through advice on trading strategies across a broad, and evolving, range of scenarios.

Equally important would be the deal support provided to the investment banking arm, supplementing discounted cash flow valuation techniques with additional perspective and insight (usually in the area of the asset’s embedded optionality), to guide more profitable asset price setting and bid decision making.

Solution
Lacima was chosen to provide these services because of its unique combination of practical experience in energy markets and its world-leading research base in valuation, hedging, and risk analytics. Of particular interest was Lacima’s ability to build tailored solutions to the team’s specific requirements in highly varied problem areas – and to do so rapidly, using well-proven methods and flexible analytical tools of known reliability.

Benefits
The move to an outsourced risk advisor enabled the energy trading team to significantly extend the financial services company’s ability to evaluate and participate in all facets of the energy sector.

The return on investment was further boosted by the energy market division’s decision to add this analytical capability without adding to fixed costs or headcount. The on-demand aspect was also viewed as of considerable benefit, since substantial peaks in workload could be accommodated smoothly while maintaining high quality.



Valuing generation assets

Issue

The director of infrastructure investments at a large financial services company was considering purchasing a number of electricity power plants, but was unsure what prices would represent good value and provide the returns needed.

On the advice of the company’s energy trading team, it was decided to supplement the asset valuation estimates made by the deal team with an additional view, based on the optionality values inherent in the power plants.

The energy trading team recognised that it needed very high quality analytical work performed which was outside its normal area of expertise. A decision was therefore made to use the services of a consultancy with specialist energy valuation, hedging, and risk analytics capabilities.

Solution
Lacima was identified as having proven plant modelling abilities, being able to incorporate multiple real-world factors into a complex pricing process.

Using Lacima's Single Factor Simulation Engine, the fuel and power prices were modeled for the market where each power plant was located. Lacima’s plant model was then used to value the optionality inherent in the power plant’s fuel supply, various management strategies for running the plants, and the hedging strategies around the energy contracts associated with each power plant.

Benefits
As a result of Lacima’s work, it was clear that the prices being offered by rival investors would not yield a good return on the investment, and the decision was taken not to continue negotiations, thereby averting an uneconomic purchase as well as saving valuable time and effort on behalf of the deal team.



Best practice comparative and advisory project, using Lacima software

Issue

The directors of a publicly-traded retailer of gas and electricity needed investigation and advice on any areas where their company’s risk quantification methods might fall short of industry best practice.

Lacima identified substantial valuation deficiencies, potential financial exposures and opportunity costs caused by current practices, and provided advice on best practice techniques which would substantially reduce this.

Solution
Lacima was selected for this work because of its experience and understanding of the market for credit risk measures in the energy industry.

Of particular interest were the analytical tools developed by Lacima, and their ability to incorporate best practice specific to this customer’s risk management objectives and circumstances.

Benefits
Taking a sample portfolio of the company’s energy contracts, statistics generated using best practice techniques could be compared with the results obtained by the company’s current practices. This highlighted both the scale of the problem and the areas where corrective action could be taken.


 
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