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Lacima riskAnalytics Solutions

Mark to Market
Aggregate mark-to-market values across an entire portfolio of options and complex contracts

Utilize Lacima's industry acclaimed single and multi factor models to mark-to-market and mark-to-model a wide array of energy and commodity contracts in a consistent way, and compare the value of different product types in liquid and illiquid markets.

Pricing
Price complex multi-commodity contracts with industry acclaimed single, multi factor and hybrid models

Lacima's models provide an accurate representation of commodity price behaviour, with the ability to incorporate the effects of seasonality, mean reversion and exposure to spikes, differences in regional energy markets, complex contracts with embedded optionality and physical asset operational constraints.

If the pricing technique used is mean reversion jump diffusion, then the implied pricing parameters for one derivative type could be used to price other derivative contract types for which there may be no price in the market.


Value at Risk
Achieve greater accuracy in representation of value-at-risk across an entire portfolio

Aggregate VaR calculations across several commodities and achieve a single VaR figure, group VaR by any attribute (e.g.s. counterparty, book, trader contract type) for any number of horizons and percentiles, and jointly model several commodities to observe correlations between price changes.


Cash flow/Earnings at Risk
Determine the effect of trading decisions on cash flow at risk over time

Aggregate EaR calculations across several commodities and achieve a single EaR figure, group EaR by any attribute for any number of time periods and percentiles and jointly model several commodities to observe correlations between price changes.

Based on Monte-Carlo simulation, VaR and EaR figures are generated by incorporating data from clients' existing databases of price histories, contract specifications, market forward curves and volatilities. All risk factors are simulated at a user defined granularity.


Credit Risk
Assess the impact of potential future exposure to cash flow at any given time

Calculate potential future exposure for any number of risk horizons or cash flow at risk for any number of time periods grouped by counterparty, while accounting for changes in their credit ratings and the possibility of default.


Hedge Optimization
Identify the best hedge combinations

Define and visualize the effectiveness of various hedge combinations. Input, view, edit and run hedging decision analysis over a portfolio of contracts over a desired evaluation period.


Portfolio Optimization
Identify the best possible revenue outcomes from contract flexibility

Capture intrinsic, extrinsic and full values from complex contracts such as gas storage, swing and generation assets, in order to identify the best possible revenue outcomes from contract flexibility. Perform "what-if scenario" analysis and measure sensitivities to prices.

Asset Dispatch & Valuation
Accurately determine the risk and value associated with power generation assets

Value portfolios of power contracts and generation assets at once with a holistic view of optimal dispatch strategies. Choose from a range of generation dispatch algorithms including ramping, price based, energy limited, wind and multi-unit generation, capture wide ranging constraints and obtain a comprehensive range of results/outputs including $ value, maximum/total MWh, average peak/off-peak forward, average peak /off-peak strike, face value, distributions of profit/loss, earnings and costs.

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Retail Load Model
Make more accurate demand forecasts by modeling volatility of retail loads

Model the residual variability relationship of weather or diurnal supply or demand effects on gas and power markets. Lacima's model accurately represents the future load outcome and simulates the variability in the load over both short and long time frames around the load forecasts.


Bid Stack Model
Make optimal decisions on dispatch of power generation assets

Estimate and model the historical relationship between price and demand (load) in power markets at a user defined granularity (e.g.s. hourly, on a business day / non-business day, peak / off-peak basis). Capture the "fat tails" and "spikes" of real-world electricity prices by combining simulations of load and price for a more accurate assessment of the value and risk of a physical unit or electricity contract.


Storage
Value a portfolio of storage contracts and assets with a holistic view of reporting on optimal strategies

Utilize industry leading models for decision support for intrinsic, rolling intrinsic, extrinsic and optimal spot trading strategies, with the ability to capture a wide range of parameters into risk calculations and to visualize distributions of cash flows, storage levels, injections and withdrawals out of the optimization. Drill down to analyze contract information and obtain a comprehensive range of results for gas storage portfolios.

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Swing
Value the flexibility of a portfolio of swing contracts and assets with a holistic view of reporting on optimal exercise strategies

Utilize industry leading models to value swing contracts with greater accuracy, visualize distributions of cash flows and swing values and incorporate a wide range of constraints into risk calculations. Drill down to analyze contract information and obtain a comprehensive range of results for swing contract portfolios.

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LNG & Cargo
Identify revenue outcomes relating to shipping and delivery of LNG and Cargo

Lacima has helped clients to address issues relating LNG and cargo through its highly acclaimed advisory expertise.


Simulation & Data Analysis
Effectively analyze price data

Closely observe the distribution of spot prices produced by Lacima's range of single and multi factor models with the ability to drill down to any level of granularity to see the statistics displayed.


Forward Curves
Generate detailed forward curves for multiple commodities

Generate detailed forward curves for different commodities including forward market quotes, intra-day, intra-week and seasonal price profiles at user-specified output granularities with the ability to easily create a detailed forward curve from sparse market and historical data. Overlapping forward quotes are easily incorporated as well as user defined holiday tables and peak/off-peak definition.


Statistics & Reporting
Obtain detailed results and output reports into other reporting systems with ease

Build any custom reports required, store and re-run reports at any time, export all data and results into any standard format, graph, filter, rearrange and aggregate data.


Parameter Estimation
Effectively calibrate price data

Calibrate any of Lacima's single, multi factor and hybrid simulation models to historical spot or forward quote prices.


Scenario Analysis
Assess the impact of trading strategies on earnings at risk outcomes

Enter a single load variation (forward curve variation), parameter variation, pricing date, contract set and correlation set, then compare the differences in the earnings-at-risk outcomes.


Load Forecasting
Generate detailed load profiles from historical load data

Lacima has helped clients to improve modeling of load forecasts through its highly acclaimed advisory expertise.

 
Overview
Consulting & Advisory
Services
Lacima Software
Training
Publications
Mark to Market
Pricing
Value at Risk
Cash flow /
Earnings at Risk
Credit Risk
Hedge Optimization
Portfolio Optimization
Asset Dispatch &
Valuation
Retail Load Model
Bid Stack Model
Storage
Swing
LNG & Cargo
Simulation & Data
Analysis
Forward Curves
Statistics & Reporting
Parameter Estimation
Scenario Analysis
Load Forecasting