Australian Renewables Generator Enhances Risk Management

An Australian renewables generator has implemented Lacima Analytics for earnings-at-risk based metrics for wind generation in Australia.

The Project

The client implemented Lacima Analytics to manage risk across their wind generation portfolio in South Australia and New South Wales. They identified that an earnings-at-risk model, incorporating both electricity and renewable exposures, would improve long-term cash flow forecasting. These forecasts supported operational decisions and helped secure funding for future investments in solar, battery storage, and dividend management.

The Client

The client is a developer, owner, and operator of renewable generation assets providing energy solutions to Australian businesses and retailers. With over 500 MW of installed capacity across Australia, it sells electricity and Large-scale Generation Certificates via contracts and the spot market.

The Solution

Lacima Analytics provided earnings-at-risk metrics tailored for wind generation and environmental products. The models linked wind output to the generation of environmental certificates, allowing a consolidated view of exposure. Advanced analytics incorporated short- and medium-term wind variability, enabling Gross Margin-at-Risk calculations in markets with complex dynamics.

The Outcome

The client gained detailed risk insights by combining electricity and environmental exposures in a unified view. Lacima’s infrastructure enabled deep drill-down into risk sources, improving portfolio sensitivity analysis and supporting consistent risk reporting.